My great-grandmother had several things in common with Philomena played by Judy Dench in the 2013 film that was nominated for four academy awards including Best Picture and Best Actress. They were both Irish, Catholic, pregnant and single. While Philomena gave ger son up for adoption, Mary travelled to what is now Cobh Ireland and boarded the Teutonic (sister ship of the Titanic) for the United States. While my grandfather was not on the manifest when the ship departed, he went through immigration at Ellis Island. We can infer that my grandfather was born during the trip.

I tell this story because Brian Klaas, author of Fluke (2024) asks readers to consider the conditions of their births and if flukes played any part in them and the lives we have lived. What if my great-grandmother had not displayed incredible courage and, like Philomena, gave her son up for adoption? Who would his adoptive parents have been? Would they have been abusive like Philomena’s son’s adoptive parents? Would I have been born and lived the lucky life I have lived?

Klaas’s main point in this eye-opening book is that flukes play an active part in most lives and throughout history. He attacks the prevailing view that X causes Y by citing many examples ranging from the Civil War to the US dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki instead of Kyoto. And, yes he is a good storyteller.

X may predict Y in natural sciences like chemistry and physics. But once humans are involved in fields like psychology and sociology, flukes often alter the outcome. Yet we continue to embrace the deterministic causal view.

Perhaps the X that is top-of-mind for many right now is Biden’s dismal June 2024 debate performance. Will it predict Y, the outcome of the 2024 election?

To introduce a little much-needed fun into the 2024 election season, I am opening a competition for forecasting the fluke that will happen between now and November 2. The winner will receive, not only accolades, but a signed copy of Rainmakers, Closers and Other Sales Myths.

To prime the pump, one could speculate that the fluke will be health-related. After all, one candidate is an octogenarian and the other is in his late seventies and obese.

Or, might something happen on the world stage that will alter public opinion in the US? What if something happens to a Putin, Zelensky or Netanyahu?

What if there is a terrorist attack on US soil? Legal outcome? Family disruptions?

The possibilities are endless and all you need to do is send your fluke prediction my way.

Finally, I recommend Fluke as an important read. My favorite quote appears on page 200: “If you torture data long enough they will confess.” (Ronald Coase, Nobel laureate)